By Joanne Potter, Editorial Director, International News, RISI
BRUSSELS,
Aug. 5, 2009 (Viewpoint) -
India is one of the few economies expected to fare relatively well this year in Asia, along with the oft-talked-about China.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is forecasting an average GDP decline for emerging Asia, excluding India and China, of 2.9% this year.
However, while Indian growth is expected to slow markedly in 2009 before starting to rebound toward the year end, GDP growth is still predicted to reach 4.5%, and accelerate to 5.6% next year.
In fact, India is the fastest-growing market for paper globally, according to the Indian Paper Manufacturers Association (IPMA). Growth in the country's paper industry has mirrored that of GDP, climbing by an average of 6-7% annually over the last few years.
The market is fairly self-contained, with much of paper and board demand met by domestic products. Imports are notable in some grades, though, in particular newsprint. Indian goods do not play a major role in export markets yet.
Last year, the country's paper and board consumption totaled 9.0 million tonnes. The IMPA reckons this will reach 13.95 million tonnes by 2015-2016.
With production of around 8 million tonnes and imports totaling some 1.4 million tonnes last year, there seems to be plenty of scope for expansion to meet this anticipated demand.
A few investment projects are in the pipeline for the next couple of years, with a total capacity increase of almost 2.4 million tonnes. However, this would still leave a gap between domestic supply and demand - an opportunity perhaps for importers or for Indian players to grow even further.
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