By Justin Toland, Contributing Editor, PPI Magazine
CARDIFF, UK,
Nov. 18, 2009 (RISI) -
The recent postal strike in the UK has led to much commentary about the effect of industrial action on the greetings card industry both in the run up to Christmas and in the longer term. The Royal Mail would normally deliver some 750 million cards over the festive season, business worth GBP 324 million ($544 million), according to the UK's Greeting Card Association (UK GCA). Charities benefit too, bringing in some GBP 50 million each year from the sale of Christmas cards. Yet, with the possibility of disruption to deliveries in the lead up to December 25, Royal Mail chief executive Adam Crozier has been quick to point to a potentially catastrophic change in the public's card-sending habits: "The danger of the strike is that the trend [towards electronic methods of communication] that is there already gets exacerbated by this."
US greetings cards manufacturers (and by extension paper producers) have even more to lose from a switch to e-cards: according to the US Greeting Card Association (US GCA) approximately 7 billion greetings cards are purchased each year by US consumers, generating an estimated $7.5 billion in retail sales. Some 2 billion of those cards are sent over the holiday season. By contrast, just 500 million e-cards are sent in a calendar year, although the figure is growing.
If the tradition of sending handwritten cards via the mail is lost, it is not just large firms such as Hallmark or Paperchase that will suffer. Many of the more than 3,000 US firms that publish greetings cards are small businesses. In the UK, which sends more cards per head of population than any other country, there are some 800 publishers, most of which have fewer than five employees.
Yet does the card industry really have anything to fear from online? Not necessarily. While it is true that some people (mostly men - 85% of cards are sent by women reckons the UK GCA!) will opt to send greetings electronically to save time, money or because of the inevitable wave of 'it's more environmentally friendly' propaganda (researching this blog I discovered four recent newspaper articles saying just that), there are still strong reasons to believe that most people will stick with a card, an envelope and a stamp for the foreseeable future. Firstly, there is the fear of computer viruses, which are often spread via links to bogus e-cards. Secondly, and more significantly, it is simply nicer to receive a physical card that you can display at home or work than it is to receive an email with a dancing snowman singing 'Deck the halls', no matter how many (jingle) bells and whistles are attached.
The (latest) results of last week's (admittedly unscientific) RISI Poll seem to bear this out. While 29.8% of respondents said they would not be sending Christmas or other season's greetings cards this December, more than half of the 70.2% who will be are going to send a physical card same as always. Just 14.9% of all respondents plan to send mostly e-cards.
Email: justin@justintoland.com
