GradePROFILE  
   

 
FORECAST (000)
US (000 tons) 1998 1999 2000e
Shipments 2,062 1,983 1,999
Capacity 2,201 2,076 2,074
Utilization rate (%) 93.6 95.3 96.3
Imports 2,571 3,384 3,642
Exports 162 154 164
Consumption 4,471 5,215 5,477
Inventories 49 43
Canada (000 mtons)      
Shipments 2,582 3,026
Canada 265 312
U.S. 2,202 2,544
Offshore 115 170
Capacity 3,293 3,502
Inventories 92 141
Sources: AF&PA, PPPC, Pulp & Paper Forecaster.

TOP N. AMERICAN PRODUCERS
Company Capacity
(000 tons)
1. Abitibi-Consolidated * 1,962
2. Stora Enso * 665
3. Pacifica Papers 474
4. Alliance Forest 464
5. Inexcon Maine * 277
6. Norske Skog * 253
7. Daishowa (N.America) 250 9153
8. J.D. Irving 250
9. St. Marys Paper 240
10. Madison Paper 228
Total Top 10 5,063
Market share of top five companies: 65%
Market share of top ten companies: 86%
Estimated 2000 N. American capacity: 5.9 mtons.
Capacity reflects corporate ownership changes and new machines as of 2000.
Notes: Abitibi includes Donohue; Stora includes Stora Port Hawkesbury and pending acquisition of Consolidated Papers; Inexcon is former Bowater/ Great Northern; Norske Skog is former Fletcher Challenge Canada.

Uncoated groundwood: New capacity offset by shutdowns, robust U.S. advertising

GRADE STRUCTURE: Uncoated groundwood papers (also known as groundwood specialties papers) are higher valued from newsprint, but are less costly than free-sheet grades. By definition, uncoated groundwood grades contain more than 10% mechanical pulp and varying proportions of chemical pulp and fillers. They are used in a variety of printed products such as telephone directories, catalogs, advertising inserts, Sunday newspaper magazines, direct mail flyers, business forms, and paperback books.

Typically, most uncoated groundwood papers are considered value-added from newsprint, with higher printing quality, higher brightness levels, smoother surfaces, and a higher price. Several of the uncoated groundwood grades, such as machine-finish (MF) offset and rotonews, are marketed as cost-effective, slightly higher-quality substitutes for newsprint. In the case of supercalendered (SC) papers, they are a lower-cost alternative to lightweight coated (LWC) groundwood paper. Super-calendering and soft calendering add a glossy surface to make a paper (grades SC-A+, SC-A, SC-B, SC-C, and soft-nip) that competes with LWC for some end uses.

PRODUCTION/CAPACITY: The American Forest & Paper Assn. revised downward its latest estimate of U.S. uncoated groundwood capacity by 6% or 130,000 tpy in 1999 reflecting conversions to other grades. A new machine this year at the former Donohue Industries Inc.’s mill in Lufkin, Texas, will contribute to capacity growth of 1.9% annually over the three-year period ending in 2002, yet overall uncoated groundwood capacity in 2002 will be about 4% below its 1996 peak of 2.3 million tpy, AFPA said.

The Lufkin mill, now owned by Abitibi-Consolidated Inc., is near the end of a $178 million project to install the former Gold River newsprint machine from British Columbia as a 250,000 mtpy uncoated SC-B paper machine. Three older machines are being shut down.

Most recent growth in uncoated groundwood capacity has occurred in Canada, where Alliance Forest Products Inc. is nearing startup of a C$275 million, 152,000 mtpy new machine to make SC-A paper. Two older units at the Donaconna, Que., mill will be closed. Stora Enso Port Hawkesbury started up the world’s largest SC machine, a 385,000 mtpy unit in Nova Scotia, in 1998.

U.S. groundwood paper shipments in 1999 of 1.983 mtons were down 3.8% from the year earlier. For the first quarter of 2000, annualized shipments of 1.928 mtons were running 2.1% higher than the year earlier, according to AFPA. Canada’s shipments of uncoated mechanical printing papers in 1999 of 3.026 million mtons was up 17.2% from the year earlier, reflecting the Port Hawkesbury startup.

Recent notable closures in North America include a 140,000 tpy high-bright machine at Fort James Corp.’s Wauna mill in Clatskanie, Ore., that was permanently shut down early in 2000 and a 50,000 tpy groundwood specialties machine at Abitibi’s mill in Trois Rivieres, Que. Also, Uniforet Inc. said it would permanently close its Tripap mill in mid-2000.

MARKET OUTLOOK. As with other printing/writing paper grades, a wave of imports to the U.S. compounded overcapacity problems for newsprint and groundwood paper markets in the U.S. Imports to the U.S. in 1999 of 3.384 million tons were 9.8% higher than the year earlier, while exports of 154,000 tons were down 5.0% Imports in 2000 are expected to be 7% higher than 1999, tapering off in 2001.

Still, a strong U.S. economy, and record advertising volumes related to dot-com marketing, led to strong demand conditions in the U.S. from late 1999 into 2000. A long labor strike against Abitibi in mid-1999 crimped supply, but the market softened as production resumed in full by early 2000.

By mid-year, prices were moving upward across several key uncoated groundwood business.

By James McLaren

Executive Editor-Pulp & Paper Week

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