 |
| U.S. (000 tons) |
2001e |
2000e |
1999 |
| Shipments |
3,953 |
13,759 |
14,064 |
| Capacity |
14,473 |
15,354 |
15,222 |
| Utilization rate (%) |
96.4 |
89.6 |
92.4 |
| % change |
3.5% |
11.7% |
0.1% |
| Imports |
1,699 |
1,439 |
1,430 |
| Exports |
681 |
687 |
667 |
| Consumption |
14,971 |
14,511 |
14,827 |
| lb/capita |
107.42 |
105.06 |
109.33 |
| Canada |
| Shipments |
1,631 |
1,628 |
1,555 |
| Capacity1 |
1,739 |
1,709 |
1,684 |
| Utilization rate (%) |
93.8 |
95.3 |
92.3 |
| Exports |
975 |
975 |
867 |
| e = estimate, p = preliminary, r = revised, n.a. = not available. GDP = gross domestic product. 20-lb No. 4 reprographic bond. 1. Pulp & Paper Products Council capacity survey 2000-2003. Sources: American Forest & Paper Assn., Pulp & Paper Forecaster, Pulp & Paper Products Council(Canada). |
| Rank Company* |
Annual capacity (000 metric tons) |
Market share (%) |
| 1. International Paper1 |
3,856 |
22.6 |
| 2. Georgia Pacific2,3 |
2,754 |
16.2 |
| 3. Boise Cascade |
1,545 |
9.1 |
| 4. Willamette |
1,460 |
8.6 |
| 5. Weyerhaeuser |
1,375 |
8.1 |
| 6. Domtar |
1,125 |
6.6 |
| 7. Nexfor4 |
480 |
2.8 |
| 8. P.H. Glatfelter |
411 |
2.4 |
| 9. Mead5 |
305 |
1.8 |
| 10. Blue Ridge Paper Products6 |
254 |
1.5 |
| Total |
13,565 |
79.7 |
Source:Pulp & Paper Company Profiles.
1.Reflects combined International Paper and Champion International tonnage, effective late 2000, including announced shutdowns.
2. Includes 25,000 tpy of specialty papers.
3. Reflects combined Georgia-Pacific and Fort James tonnage, effective late 2000.
4. Through wholly owned subsidiary Fraser Papers.
5. Includes carbonless and specialty.
6. Former Champion mill in Canton, N.C.
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Grade Structure. Chemical pulps (sulfate, sulfite, soda, cotton linters, or vegetable fiber) are used to make uncoated free-sheet (also called woodfree) papers, with occasional additions of up to 10% mechanical fiber or bleached chemi-thermomechanical (BCTMP) pulps and recycled fibers. BCTMP furnishes lower the cost of manufacturing while providing a better grade of paper than stone groundwood or other mechanical pulp. Many of the major producers have converted some or all of their machines to alkaline-based paper, and most new installations are alkaline.
Uncoated free-sheet papers are used for office and business printing (copiers, computer printers, etc.), business forms and envelopes, publishing (mostly text and trade books), commercial printing, and writing (stationery). There has been somewhat of an upheaval in the segment as cut-size demand is expected to grow two to three times faster than overall uncoated free-sheet demand, thanks to the rise of digital on-demand printing and sales of ink jet and laser printers.
Total North American shipments of uncoated free-sheet papers totaled 13.9 million mtons in 2000, 2.9% lower than 1999 shipments of 14.3 million mtons.
Capacity. Many of the major producers and some minor ones including Inter-national Paper Co., Georgia-Pacific Corp., Willamette Industries Inc., Crown Vantage Inc., and Appleton Papers Inc. have announced and/or carried through on closures and conversions in the uncoated free-sheet market that total about 1.04 million tons over the next year. Total U.S. uncoated free-sheet capacity is expected to decline by about 5% in 2001, a loss of 795,000 mtons from 2000, finally ending up at about 14.8 million mtons in 2002. Most of the reductions were announced as being permanent. Of the biggest removals, IP announced last October that it would close three mills and reduce operations at a fourth paper mill—removing about 820,000 tons of its U.S. uncoated papers capacity—as part of a restructuring effort designed to reduce an oversupply of paper as well as cut operating costs. Willamette announced the removal of about 85,000 tons, and Appleton an-nounced the closure and conversion of 89,000 tons.
In total, virtually no new uncoated free-sheet capacity comes on in 2001 and 2002. From 2001 to 2003, uncoated free-sheet capacity grows just 0.3% a year—well below the 2.0% growth in the previous 10 year period.
Current Market Conditions. The uncoated free-sheet market was fairly snug at the end of 2000, following a weak May to September period. Capacity rationalizations can be thanked for the market turnaround in the fourth quarter. In January 2001, key suppliers announced a $60/ton increase for the uncoated free-sheet market, the second increase for those grades in the past 12 months. As of the first quarter 2001, cut-size (20 lb bond) was transacting at about $890/ton, about 3% higher than the same period in 2000. Offset printing rolls (50 lb) were at $750-790/ton, about 4% higher than the year-ago period.
The most recently announced price increase—due to be implemented by the end of February by most producers—appeared shaky. Several industry analysts said that in order for it to be successful, uncoated free-sheet producers must follow through with planned capacity closures. In addition, rising pulp prices sparked skepticism about the increase. However, analysts did believe that at least some—perhaps half—of the $60/ton increase might be implemented, largely due to a steady market demand.
Outlook. Operating rates are expected to rise over the next two years. The 2000 U.S. operating rate was 89.6%. Operating rates are expected to be at about 96% this year. In addition, U.S. uncoated free-sheet shipments are expected to increase 1.5% this year over 2000 and total almost 14 million tons. Finally, prices are expected to increase 3.5% in 2001 to average $908/ton for 20 lb reprographic bond, up from an average of $877/ton in 2000.
By Kathryn Mackenzie
News Editor
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