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CHRIS LYDANN
is forest products editor for Pulp & Paper and editor of the International Woodfiber Report. He is based near Richmond, Va.
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Forest products insiders worry that a federal, multi-agency study may include several issues that could be construed against the industry in the South
Report on Southern U.S. Forests Fuels Anxiety Within Industry
An anxiously anticipated government report—on a range of forest and related resources of the U.S. South—nears release, promising divergent reactions and competing interpretations. "None" of the federal agency authors were "friends of ours," notes one paper company source.
"We're not afraid of the report—rather its misuse" by industry opponents, says an American Forest & Paper Assn. spokesman. "That's why we're becoming so proactive," another contact adds. "We got burned" in the North Carolina chip study where certain items were "distorted," causing damage to the industry there. "We are afraid of the same with this on a southwide scale."
The USDA Forest Service (USFS), in partnership with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USF&W), Tennessee Valley Authority, and Southern state forestry agencies, is in the final stages of revealing the first Southern Forest Resource Assessment (SFRA), an exhaustive report on various resources (both tangible and intangible) found in the 214 million acres of forests across the 13 Southern states.
Considered key to environmentalists and industry are several new features under evaluation, including "sustainability" and "quality of life." Previously, report contributors EPA and USF&W disapproved of industrial pine plantations and clearcut practices in the South, with former USFS Chief Mike Dombec a frequent critic of industry.
While the details remained confidential at press time, industry and other supporters plan to roll out upbeat responses in mid-May, well prior to the report's expected August release. "We have a good story to tell," says a major company contact. "The trends, overall, are very positive" as "we continue to gain efficiencies in growth, manufacturing, and converting."
The biggest risk to this rosy scenario is the expected counter interpretation by environmental organizations. The report, "in fact, will confirm citizen concerns of mismanagement on forests in the South," says one leading preservationist. "If clearcuts and pine plantations are the only way" the South can meet ever-higher demands—"that's unacceptable, that's unsustainable." The "highest values of our forests are in watershed protection, wildlife habitat, recreation, and value-added, long-lasting wood products. It's time to stop using these valuable assets to make disposable products," wrote an environmental group.
SFRA is "not intended to control harvesting, but that's the intent of the green community" says a company executive. The problem "is not us" explained another company source, "it's unchecked urban sprawl."
RIVAL INTERPRETATIONS. Traditionally, timber demand "has been defined by industry; now that demand is shifting," the environmentalist maintains, as evidenced by retailers like Home Depot now taking keen interest in forestry issues ("Strategic Forest Initiative Gains Momentum, Critical Hurdles Remain," P&P, May 2001, p. 51). "Report or no report—the problems are clear." She identified three desired results from SFRA: a moratorium on new facilities, new policies to protect forests, and market-based incentives for change.
The SFRA took on a unique "eco-style, issues approach," a significant departure from the USFS's Resources Planning Act (RPA) model used since the 1950s to assess the nation's timber situation, explains a senior analyst. Based primarily on year-end 1999 data, however, both may understate the continued market contraction underway in the South.
Pine inventories are "admittedly overcut" in some areas of the South currently, "but it's not the end of the world, by any stretch," the analyst explains. And the deficit will be reversed soon, as young plantations surge into the calculation. Vocal opponents, however, brand over-cutting as timber management "run-amuck" and in need of regulation.
Clearcuts, another key friction point, are shown to be "increasing rapidly" in SFRA, according to sources. Foresters and industry scientists defend the practice, explaining that Southern pine (the region's most productive specie) grows only in full sunlight, thereby necessitating clearcuts. Aesthetically, such cuts are unsightly for only the first two or three years before green-up, they add. Such a practice, opponents insist, harms bio-diversity and water quality.
SFRA's "Quality of Life" chapter "is the one that concerns me the most," suggests an association leader. "It's never been considered before" and could be misinterpreted to harm industry. Such a topic "is too subjective," adds a company contact. "Hogwash," counters another preservationist. "Quality of life should be our first goal."
Herein lies the dilemma: As long as the U.S. grows in population and standard of living, "we want and need more wood," an expert points out. There seems to be little room for compromise, but "that's what is needed here, if we are committed to solutions rather than never-ending arguments," says another.
RPA PROVIDES INSIGHTS. Slings and arrows aside, the national RPA outlook draft released in late 2000 furnished several key elements applied in the SFRA model, and thus provides some insight prior to its release. Interestingly, RPA forecasts "no real problems" in timber supply for the South over the next 50 years, explains an analyst. And while applying another timber market's model, known as SERTS, the SFRA will likely come to a similar conclusion on timber sufficiency, leaving industry opponents with "little ammunition" on the over-cutting argument, sources suggest.
Regarding clearcuts and conversion to plantations on private lands, RPA and SERTS models forecast similar "substantial increases" in the coming decades, but "it won't be wall-to-wall plantations" across the South, says the analyst (Figure 1). Looking out just to 2010, RPA shows plantation area growing to occupy 20% of all timberlands southwide, up an estimated 6 million acres, to 35 million acres, a 2% annual increase. This forecast rate is considerably slower than that recorded between 1990 and 2000, when pine plantation acreage grew 3.6% per year, or 8 million acres in total. With overall acreage staying relatively constant to 2010, upland hardwood, the South's largest component, loses some share to plantation.
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FIGURE 1. A United States Forest Service Resource Planning Act (RPA) report shows plantation area in the U.S. South growing to occupy 20% of all timberlands.
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Regarding harvests nationwide, RPA forecasts the strongest run-up to occur in Southern hardwoods, up 11% between 2000 and 2010, after a 26% rise between 1990 and 2000 (Figure 2). Softwood harvest from the South maintains lead share for the period while increasing an estimated 5.5% through 2010. Western U.S. harvests are forecast to be flat, while removals in the North should rise about 9%.
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FIGURE 2. The RPA report forecasts the strongest increase in harvesting nationwide to occur in Southern hardwoods, up 11% between 2000 and 2001.
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If certain RPA (and SFRA) timber demand assumptions are deemed "optimistic" due to sharper than expected contractions across both lumber and pulpwood markets in 2000-2002, expect more of a buffer between growth and removals.
SFRA'S GENESIS. Prompted by environmental activists, SFRA was initiated during the Clinton administration in early 1999. Subsequently, 24 questions were developed to organize the analysis, encompassing 125 specific points. Beyond the traditional topics of "Timber Markets and Forest Management" and "Forest Extent, Conditions, and Health," some "far-reaching" and "esoteric" subjects are also to be addressed in the report, and are of concern to the industry, according to sources. Some of these include:
• What are the history, status, and future of terrestrial wildlife habitat types and native plant communities?
• What are the attitudes and values of residents toward forests, and what motivates management?
• How do forests and their uses influence the quality of life in the South?
• What are the history, status, and future of water quality and forested wetlands?
• What are the implementation rates and effectiveness of best management practices (BMPs)?
A USFS spokesman said in 1999, "We believe this is a critical first step in meeting the challenge placed upon forestland in the South, which provides an increasingly large portion of the nation's wood and fiber for domestic and export use, while the region's population continues to rapidly increase and expand into formerly forested areas."
RPA OUTLOOK TO 2050. Again, applying available data for clues to SFRA's results, the RPA draft reports that overall U.S. softwood timber resources will increase in abundance over the next 50 years, while hardwood timber resources become more limited. Southern softwood timber harvest is expected to increase slowly during the next decade, constrained by available timber inventories.
After 2010, the pace of Southern softwood harvest increases, with more abundant supply of timber from maturing pine plantations. Importantly, the supply outlook depends on expanded softwood plantations, increased management intensity, and improvements in manufacturing technology.
Hardwood harvest in the South, after rising in the short term, increases slowly or declines on some ownerships through the 20- to 50-year horizon, according to RPA, with harvest and utilization constrained by available timber inventories and increasing hardwood stumpage prices. Timber harvest in the West remains relatively constant to 2050.
Regarding demand, U.S. forest product output will continue to expand in the decades ahead, with a one-third increase in the tonnage of all product output projected over the next 25 years. n
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