Introduction to RISI

~ Mike Coffey, Chief Executive Officer, RISI

Presentation of the RISI North American CEO of the Year Award to Domtar's John D. Williams

~ Presented by Mike Coffey, CEO, RISI

KEYNOTE ADDRESS

Domtar Corporation is the largest integrated manufacturer and marketer of uncoated freesheet paper in North America and the second largest in the world based on production capacity, and is also a manufacturer of papergrade, fluff and specialty pulp.

~ John D. WIlliams, President and CEO, Domtar

Keynote Questions & Answers

Wood Products Industry: Recovery or Stagnation for 2011-20?

• Could we repeat the 1980's when industry prices and margins were low for 10 years?
• Is there a risk of a housing set back before 2014?
• What are the other key drivers of industry profits and prices for the next 5 years?

~ Lynn Michaelis, President, Strategic Economic Analysis and RISI Contributor

Branding Forest Products in the Global Marketplace

• Building environmental credentials in forestry
• Forging a new, collaborative path with environmental and conservation group
• Forest industry transformation - future biopathways

~ Isabelle Des Chênes, Vice President, Market Relations, Forest Products Association of Canada

Questions & Answers

Coffee Break

During the break, visit the HP Cyber Station and print the most up-to-date conference presentations in color. Plus, get your FREE MARKET ANALYSIS! Jesse Neese from RISI's Mill Intelligence group will generate a market analysis report customized to the industry sector of most interest to you. Jesse can also show you how mills you are interested in compare to others in the industry.

Networking Lunch (Location: Lighthouse I)

Outlook for North American Bioenergy Sector to 2015

• Will public policy, international trade and other market dynamics impact development of this growing industry sector in North America?
• How are the different sectors of the bioenergy industry expected to develop to 2015 in terms of production, demand, international trade, and as a competitor for fiber supply across key regions in USA and Canada?
• What are the economics underlying these industries and how do those impact the bioenergy sector's ability to compete for fiber supply?

~ Anne Rahikainen, Director, Bioenergy Services, RISI

Evolution in North American Wood Biomass Markets

• A year-in-review of wood biomass market drivers
• New demand for wood biomass through 2015
• Current issues facing wood energy and wood pellet mill developers

~ William Perritt, Executive Editor, Wood Biomass Market Report, RISI

When Tree Huggers Attack - How to Survive and Profit From the New Environmentalism

No doubt about it. Environmental activists are turning up the heat on the forest products industry, at home and abroad. And it's only going to get hotter.

•What are the issues?
•Who are the targets?
•What can you do to stay out of the line of fire?
•How can you turn the campaign chaos campaigns into business opportunity?

~ Peter Nowack, Founder, Nowack-Beer Consulting

Questions & Answers

Coffee Break

During the break, visit the HP Cyber Station and print the most up-to-date conference presentations in color. Plus, get your FREE MARKET ANALYSIS! Jesse Neese from RISI's Mill Intelligence group will generate a market analysis report customized to the industry sector of most interest to you. Jesse can also show you how mills you are interested in compare to others in the industry.

25th Anniversary Cocktail Party (Location: Lighthouse I)

Come celebrate 25 years of the RISI North American Forest Products Conference!

Start of Conference

Global Economic Outlook

~ David Katsnelson, Senior Economist, Macroeconomcis, RISI

North American Timber Market Outlook

• What does a slow recovery mean for sawlog and pulpwood prices?
• How will timber markets recover from this depression?
• Will deferred harvesting be a significant issue?
• When will beetle kill seriously compromise BC producers?
• Do fiber costs set the stage for export growth?
• What do our forecasts imply for timberland valuations?

~ Peter Barynin, Principal Economist, Timber, RISI

International Woodfiber Market Outlook

• What does the collapse of the MIS sector and dramatic shifts in forest ownership in Australia in 2009/2010 mean for woodchip exports to Japan and China?
• Indonesia: Major pulp producer or woodchip exporter? Or both?
• China's softwood log and lumber imports continue to expand, and supply sources are changing rapidly --- but can non-Russian sources meet expected demand?
• South American plantation forests --- how well balanced are wood fiber supply and demand?

~ Bob Flynn, Director, International Timber, RISI

Questions & Answers

Coffee Break

During the break, visit the HP Cyber Station and print the most up-to-date conference presentations in color. Plus, get your FREE MARKET ANALYSIS! Jesse Neese from RISI's Mill Intelligence group will generate a market analysis report customized to the industry sector of most interest to you. Jesse can also show you how mills you are interested in compare to others in the industry.

Special Focus on Fluff Pulp

• How large is the global fluff pulp market and what are the growth prospects?
• How long before Chinese fluff pulp consumption outstrips that of N. America and Europe?
• End-use products for fluff pulp are continually evolving. Will new innovations in absorbent products have a material effect on the fluff pulp market?

~ David Fortin, Economist, Fiber, RISI

Global Recovered Paper Market Outlook

• Will the current strong domestic demand in North America or Western Europe last?
• How massive will Asian import be? Can the developed world meet the expected demand?
• How high is the world recovery rate already? And how much further can it go?

~ Hannah Zhao, Economist, Recovered Paper, RISI

Global Tissue Market Outlook

• Will recovery in tissue demand be stronger than expected?
• Why the new rush for TAD/ultra quality capacity expansions?
• Will alternative technologies challenge TAD tissue soon?

~ Esko Uutela, Principal, Tissue, RISI

Questions & Answers

Networking Lunch (Location: Lighthouse I)

Where Has All the Newsprint Gone?

• The dramatic reduction in newsprint capacity - a look at yesterday versus today.
• From a benchmarking perspective, where are yesterday's high cost mills today?
• Historically, newsprint machine conversions to uncoated mechanical papers - but currently, lightweight containerboard?!

~ Bill Studstill, Director, Cost Benchmarking, Graphic Papers, RISI

Global Packaging Market Outlook

• Is the current recovery in the North American market real or an illusion?
• How is the rebound in the Asian market affecting North American producers?
• What are the prospects for global trade for the packaging grades?

~ Ken Waghorne, Vice President, Packaging, RISI

Global Printing & Writing Market Outlook

• Is the 2010 demand recovery in North America and Europe for real, or is it a flash in the pan?
• Are print magazines, catalogs, inserts, directories, and office documents in long-term decline like newspapers?
• Can China find a home for all of its new capacity and will the government finally rein in the future expansion?
• How will exchange rates and tariffs impact US/European trade in the coming years?
• What are the profitability trends by sector?
• Why has consolidation boosted pricing power and profitability in some businesses like uncoated freesheet, but failed miserably in others?

~ John Maine, Vice President, Graphic Paper, RISI

Global Newsprint Market Outlook

• What lies beyond the demand collapse of 2009 in North America and abroad?
• What does the massive closure of high cost mills mean for the North American market?
• Offshore exports have had a booming recovery in 2010. Can it last and will this be enough to make up for declining demand in developed markets?
• Will Europe and Asia attempt to increase exports to North America?

~ Derek Mahlburg, Economist, North American Graphic Paper, RISI

Questions & Answers

Summary & Wrap-up

Outlook for Wood Products Demand Indicators

• Can the repair and remodelling market recover without housing?
• Are the signs that non-residential construction is bottoming a reality or simply an illusion?
• Will furniture imports continue to grow or is a weak US$ and low material costs enough to stem the tide?
• Without a pickup in housing, what does the recovery for furniture look like?

~ Crystal Gauvin, Economist, Wood Products, RISI

North American Lumber Market Outlook

• How long will demand remain at levels that will leave lumber prices bouncing around cash costs for the most cost efficient mills in the industry?
• Will offshore export demand (read: China) rescue the North American softwood lumber market?
• Will we see a repeat of the price volatility experienced in the first half of 2010?

~ Bob Berg, Principal Economist, Lumber, RISI

North American Engineered Wood Products Market Outlook

• Anemic recovery will continue to be the primary drag on increasing EWP demand and overall market health.
• Early 2010 price "pop" was unsustainable; market fundamentals remain too weak.
• Full recovery in EWP markets unlikely before 2013 at the earliest.

~ Bernard Fuller, Principal Economist, Wood Panels, RISI

Questions & Answers

Networking Lunch (Location: Lighthouse I)

North American Non-Structural Panels Market Outlook

• Particleboard's prospects are largely tied to the health of North American furniture production.
• HDF's growth prospects somewhat better than for MDF as non-furniture end-use markets provide at least limited growth opportunities.
• Prices and profitability will improve sooner for MDF than particleboard, but don't hold your breath!

~ Bernard Fuller, Principal Economist, Wood Panels, RISI

North American Structural Panels Market Outlook

• 2010 will mark the first year of demand growth for structural panels since 2005.
• OSB's recovery remains highly correlated to the health and timing of that in new home construction, particularly single-family homes.
• However, we do not need record demand to boost prices and profitability; capacity attrition, reduced production schedules and thin inventories together will provide for continued volatility in structural panel prices over the next several years. But it will be hard to match or exceed the spring 2010 price peaks within the next two-to-three years.

~ Bernard Fuller, Principal Economist, Wood Panels, RISI

Questions & Answers

Summary & Wrap-up

To view the legal limitations on discussions at RISI conferences, please click here.