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Forecasting Methodology


Over the past twenty-five years, RISI has developed a series of integrated models of the global forest products industry. The models are tools to assist our economists with their short-, medium- and long-term forecasts for the industry. Each model is fully integrated across product areas and geographic regions to capture complex interactions in the industry. Together, the models closely simulate the actual structure of the forest products industry, including price feedback into the demand for each grade, both domestic and export. RISI currently maintains fifteen distinct models, containing over 5,000 equations.

RISI models are based on econometrics, in which statistical techniques are applied to economic theory to create equations that reflect the actual behavior of the industry. The accuracy of the models is tested over time by 'forecasting history' to see how the models would have predicted the past. The models are continually refined and adjusted as the structures of the various sectors evolve.

     


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