European Uncoated Woodfree Papers Risk of Closure Study
A detailed assessment of potential uncoated woodfree paper machine closures in Europe
Paper company and machine risk compared to industry average - Uncoated woodfree capacity.
Demand for uncoated woodfree paper in Western Europe has declined at an annual rate of 3.3% since 2007. Overcapacity in the market and high input costs, has been affecting producer profitability in Europe, making it inevitable that some European mills will face closure. New capacity in Eastern Europe, Asia and Latin America will weaken export possibilities and could turn Western Europe into a net importer by 2015. High raw material and energy costs threaten the profitability of non-integrated producers but provide an opportunity for integrated producers and net sellers of pulp or electricity.
Because of these market pressures, 1.5 million tonnes of uncoated paper capacity is expected to close in Europe by 2015 - this new study reveals those machines and companies most at risk.
Similar to RISI's recent European Coated Papers Risk of Closure Study, this new study uses a range of criteria, including long-term cost position, financials, and the strategies of mills producing uncoated woodfree grades in Europe, to identify the uncoated woodfree paper machines most likely to close by 2015. The methodology also indicates possible bankruptcies and industry re-structuring, including companies likely to participate in industry consolidation.
The European Uncoated Papers Risk of Closure Study analyzes 29 companies and 65 xerographic and printing & converting paper machines in Europe, to reveal those machines most at risk of closure.
In order to prepare suppliers to the industry, financial companies, merchants, paper buyers and pulp producers for possible closures, RISI has developed a methodology that involves a quantitative system for ranking closure risk, backed by on-the-ground knowledge of the mills.
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RISI Ranks the Machines Most at Risk of Closure
RISI is uniquely qualified to assess this risk. Our global team of economists and engineers provides ongoing market and cost analysis of global graphic paper markets through our cost-benchmarking studies and monthly Monitor, Paper Trader Europe.
In order to prepare suppliers and other affected parties for possible closures, RISI has developed a methodology that involves a quantitative system for ranking closure risk, backed up by on-the-ground knowledge of the mills.
The methodology is three-dimensional:
65 machines and 29 producers of xerographic, and printing & converting papers in Europe are analyzed in the study:
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