Study Highlights:
- China boxboard demand, supply and trade dynamics from 2006-2016.
- Exclusive analysis of major players as well as market structure by major sub-grades (including: FBB/ivoryboard, SBS, LPB & Cupstock, Coated Duplex/Recycled Boxboard, and others.)
- Boxboard demand composition and a bottom-up forecast focused on the top 15 end-use markets.
- Profile of the major Chinese producers and industry competitive landscapes.
- Global trade implications of China's ascent in the global boxboard industry.
Price: Single Print Copy: US $ 9,500
Price: Corporate License: US $ 11,500
(Corporate License includes: A print copy of the Report; Online access to a PDF copy of the study and corresponding Excel spreadsheets; Direct link to economist to ask questions; Internal distribution rights for your company)
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China is the largest boxboard consumer in Asia and has accounted for more than 50% of total Asian boxboard consumption since 2004. RISI projects that Chinese boxboard demand will grow 6-7% on average from 2012 through 2016. This is well above the 4% growth that was recorded in 2011. In this study, RISI examines the macroeconomic trends contributing to this growth, as well as the growth fundamentals in 15 major downstream industrial segments.
Major growth drivers in China through 2015
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Analysis of the top 15 boxboard end-use markets
The 15 end-use industries analyzed for this study accounted for roughly 75% of total boxboard demand from 2006 to 2010. This share is expected to grow to 78% in 2015. The pharmaceutical, dairy, toy and cigarette industries are expected to experience the fastest growth rates in boxboard usage, while others will have slower growth due to moderating internal and external demand.
Chinese boxboard end-use markets by marketshare
Explosive Capacity Growth
On the supply side, China's share of total Asian capacity increased from 30% in 2000 to nearly 60% in 2010. The nation's capacity growth is expected to reach a record high of 12.8% in 2012, and will be even higher in the next two years. For virgin cartonboard grades, capacity expansion is expected to hold a double-digit pace in the medium term, which is far above the demand growth trend. Oversupply will force producers to expand channels into external markets, making it a net exporter of boxboard.
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Study Highlights
Included in the study
- China boxboard demand, supply and trade dynamics from 2006-2016.
- Exclusive analysis of major players as well as market structure by major sub-grades (including: FBB/ivoryboard, SBS, LPB & Cupstock, Coated Duplex/Recycled Boxboard, and others.)
- Boxboard demand composition and a bottom-up forecast focused on the top 15 end-use markets.
- Profile of the major Chinese producers and industry competitive landscapes.
- Global trade implications of China's ascent in the global boxboard industry.
Gain insights into the latest development trends in the Chinese boxboard market with analysis of:
- Key market characteristics such as: market structure, product mix, competitive landscapes and briefs on major producers and regional markets.
- Boxboard demand by various end-use sectors, and how they will drive the changes in future demand by sub-grade.
- China's expanding impact on trade within and outside Asia.
- Chinese producers' competitiveness in both internal and external markets.
- Strategies for business growth opportunities in China and related targeted markets.
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Study Outline
1. Executive Summary
2. Chinese Economic Outlook
- 2.1 RISI's Regional Definition of China
3. An Overview of the China Boxboard Industry
- 3.1 Grade Definitions
- 3.2 Industry Demand, Supply and Trade Dynamics in 2006-2011
- 3.2.1 Market Demand by Grade
- 3.2.2 Production and Trade by Grade
- 3.2.3 An Explanatory Note Regarding the Complexity of Boxboard Production and Trade Data
- 3.2.4 Capacity Expansion during 2006-2011
- 3.2.5 Overall Price Trend Analysis
- 3.2.5.1 Coated Duplex Board (WLC) Price Trends
- 3.2.5.2 Ivoryboard (mainly FBB) Price Trends
4. Market Structure Characteristics (Firm-Level Analysis)
- 4.1 Virgin Cartonboard Market in 2011
- 4.1.1 Domestic Ivoryboard Price Movements by Producer's Brand
- 4.1.2 Special Research & Analysis:
- 4.1.2.1 Case Study 1: China Cigarette Board Market
- 4.1.2.2 Case Study 2: Liquid Packaging Board (LPB) Market
- 4.2 Recycled Boxboard Market in 2011
- 4.2.1 Domestic Coated Duplex Price Movements by Producer's Brand
- 4.3 Major Boxboard Producers Profile
- 4.4 Basis Weight Analysis
- 4.5 Shipping Shape and Roll/Sheet Portion
- 4.6 Main Distribution Channel for Boxboard Grades
5. Boxboard Demand Composition, End-Use Analysis and Forecast
- 5.1 Analysis of the 15 Major End-Use Markets for Boxboard
- 5.1.2 RISI's Research Methodology
- 5.1.3 Overview of China Boxboard Demand by End-Use Industry
- 5.2 RISI's Forecasting Methodology
- 5.3 End-Use Based Forecast for Boxboard Sub-Grades in 2012-2016
6. Industry Outlook and Analysis, A Hybrid Approach
- 6.1 China Boxboard Forecast Summary
- 6.2 Total Boxboard Demand Forecast by Grade in 2012-2016
- 6.3 Overall Production and Trade Forecast
- 6.4 Capacity Expansion Monitoring & Analysis in 2012-2016
- 6.5 Boxboard Capacity Forecast
- 6.6 Regions and Market Briefs
7. Major Producers and Industry Competitive Landscapes
- 7.1 Capacity and Machine Assets
- 7.2 Fiber Furnish
- 7.3 Coating Chemicals
- 7.4 Main Sources of Market Pulp and Coating Chemicals
- 7.5 Plies of Base Paper, Coating Layer and Coating Weights
- 7.6 Cost Competitiveness of Virgin Cartonboard (Ivoryboard) Producers
8. Trade Implications from China's Ascent and Risks
- 8.1 Discussion of China's Impact on Global Boxboard Trade Market
- 8.2 Firm-Level Behaviors and Exporting Regions
- 8.3 Cross-Regional Market Comparisons
- 8.4 A Snapshot of RISI's World Boxboard Study
- 8.5 Risks to the Forecast
Study Authors
Ken Waghorne, Vice President, Paper Packaging, RISI
Ken has specialized in the paper packaging markets for RISI since 1983. He provides detailed monthly and quarterly analysis
and forecasts of the North American paper packaging markets as well as single- and multi-client studies. He developed RISI's
international containerboard model as well as the paper packaging models for the Latin American markets. He also produces the
RISI end-use market analysis for the Paperboard Packaging Council's Trends Report on the US folding carton industry. Ken manages RISI's global
packaging economic team, and directs the incorporation of the forecasts from North America, Asia, Europe and Latin America into RISI's global
reports. Ken holds a Master of Science degree in Forest Economics from Virginia Tech and his Bachelor of Science degree in Forestry from LSU.
Han Yao,Economist, Asian Paper Packaging, RISI
Han is responsible for managing all Asian paper packaging market analysis and forecasts, with a focus on the end-use econometric
modeling as well as China paperboard market. He writes RISI's Asian paper packaging reports, including monthly commentary as
well as medium- and long-term forecast reports. Han has a Master's degree in Economics from Maxwell School of Citizenship and
Public Affairs at Syracuse University, New York. He also holds a bachelor's degree in Mathematical Economics.
Portia Zhao, Product Manager, RISI
Portia Zhao joined the RISI Shanghai office in 2006 and is a Product Manager specializing in cost benchmarking for the pulp and paper industry. Prior to joining RISI, Portia worked with UPM-Kymmene (Changshu) Paper Industry Co., Ltd. in Shanghai, where she was Business Intelligence Analyst for China and the Asia-Pacific region. Portia also has two years of engineering experiences working at Advance Agro Pulp & Paper Integrated Co., Ltd. in Prachinburi, Thailand. She holds a Master degree of Engineering in Pulp and Paper Technology from the Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand; a Bachelor degree of Economics in International Economics and Trade: and a Bachelor degree of Engineering in Pulp and Paper Technology from the South China University of Technology.
Candice Song, Analyst, Asian Paper Packaging
Candice is responsible for assisting in the production of monthly packaging commentaries and quarterly forecasts. She also assists in preparing capacity reports and provides support on special projects. Candice holds a Master degree of Engineering in Pulp and Paper Technology from China National Pulp and Paper Research Institute and a bachelor degree of Engineering in Pulp and Paper Technology from Shaanxi University of Science & Technology, China.
Kevin Jiang , Project Analyst, RISI
Kevin Jiang is a Project Analyst at RISI who has participated in the China cartonboard study, China kraft paper study and China MG tissue wrapping paper study. He focuses mainly on the end-use side. Before joining RISI, Kevin worked for Pacific Millennium Paper Group Ltd. as a sales and market specialist. Prior to that, he worked in sales at a paper chemical company. He also worked as a researcher for China National Pulp and Paper Research Institute. Kevin received his bachelor degrees in pulp and paper-making from Shandong Institute of Light Industry.
David Katsnelson, Senior Economist, Macroeconomics, RISI
David is responsible for the collecting, analyzing, forecasting, and communicating macroeconomic data and its relevance to clients throughout the forest product industry. He is the editor of RISI's Monthly Economic Commentary and the Economic Outlook chapters that appear in all RISI forecasts. Prior to joining RISI, David worked at IHS Global Insight as an economist in the Country Analysis and Forecasting Group. He also consulted for the Committee on Capital Markets Regulation, a think-tank in Cambridge, MA. Before that, David worked for more than a decade in the financial industry as a trader for boutique hedge funds and brokerages in New York and Boston. David received his MBA in International Economic Policy from Brandeis International Business School, and his B.A. in Economics from the University of Chicago.
Yansong Liu, Advanced Consultant, Asian Graphic Paper
Yansong Liu has more than 27 years of experience in the Chinese paper industry. From 1984 to 1999, he worked at the Packaging Corporation of the Ministry of Light Industry. We was responsible for the evaluation of new packaging projects based on imported technologies; allocation and sales of imported paper products; and drafting of national packaging standards. From 1999 to 2004, Yansong was employed by APP and was responsible for sales and marketing for all APP paper and board products in Northern China. Since 2005, he has been managing several recovered paper packing operations and is an insider and expert of the recovered paper collection business in China.
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Price
2012 China Boxboard Study Corporate License*: US $ 11,500
*Corporate License includes:
- A print copy of the Report
- Online access to: PDF copy of the study and corresponding Excel spreadsheets
- Direct link to economist to ask questions
- Internal distribution rights for your company
2012 China Boxboard Study Single Print Copy: US $ 9,500
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