North American Structural Panel Risk Study

A risk assessment of mill capacity, and an analysis of structural panel demand, supply and prices.

North American structural panel producers are facing a period of extreme uncertainty in light of the recent rulings on MACT (Maximum Achievable Control Technology). Already facing an extended downturn in the housing markets and increased competition from lower cost products, many producers will now be forced to spend millions to meet these new requirements -- or close.

How many mills will eventually need to close and for how long? Will pressure from new, low-cost capacity scheduled to come online through 2010 result in more substitution of OSB for plywood and the closure of older, smaller-capacity plywood and OSB mills? RISI examines these issues and many others impacting softwood plywood and OSB producers in the North American Structural Panel Risk Study.

This study provides:

• An assessment of North American structural panel mills
• A listing of which mills are most at risk for closure
• An evaluation of each of 144 North American softwood plywood and OSB mills
• A plywood and OSB market outlook and five-year forecast of supply
• A historical review of the differences between benchmark prices for OSB vs. softwood plywood sheathing
• A discussion on regional fiber outlook and the factors that are expected to influence availability

This study will identify structural panel mill operations (softwood plywood and OSB) at risk of closure through 2008 and 2009. Each mill will be systematically ranked using the following factors:

• Mill cash cost (will include discussion of cost benchmarking methodology)
• Mill product mix / Manufacturing Flexibility / Market Outlook
• Regional Fiber Availability (will include a discussion on regional fiber markets and risks to those forecasts for pulpwood and sawlogs)
• Mill-by-mill competition for fiber (excluding Canadian mills)
• Geographic Risk (considers mill proximity to the coast, urban areas and population change)

For more information:
If you would like more information on this study click here to download the study prospectus, call Scott Gately at 781.734.8920 (US & Canada), +32.2.536.0748 (outside the US and Canada), or email him at sgately@risiinfo.com.