Pacific Rim Softwood Log Market Outlook

In 2007, the three major Pacific Rim markets of China, Japan, and Korea, will import more than 36 million cubic meters (MMCM) of softwood logs, a record volume. This volume, which has increased more than 60% in the past decade, is all the more remarkable because delivered prices for softwood logs have been escalating rapidly, up 50% to 80%, on average, in the past four years. Ocean freight rates are at record levels as well, which in turn partly explains why Russia's share of the Pacific Rim softwood markets is at an all-time high . However, Russia's announced plan to raise its export duties on logs to 80% of value by January 1, 2009 has generated great confusion in the softwood log consuming countries, and raises the possibility that the market is now at a "tipping point", poised for major structural changes in the years ahead.

RISI's new study, Pacific Rim Softwood Log Market Outlook, examines this market and explores the following key questions:

• How will Russia's tax increase, if implemented, impact the rapidly growing demand for softwood logs in the Pacific Rim?
• Will there be differences in how the three main markets (China, Japan, Korea) react to this structural change in the market?
• What are the prospects for off-setting the impact of Russia's log export tax by increasing the available supply of logs from alternative sources?

Study Features:

• Detailed profile of softwood log markets in Asia, volumes and prices.
• Detailed profile of countries supplying 99% of the softwood logs: Russia, USA, Canada, New Zealand, Australia.
• Outlook for impact of the increased Russian log export tax on log volumes and pricing, including different responses in the three key markets.
• Discussion of India and 'other" softwood log markets, and discussion of potential to replace Russian volume from other sources.

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