The North American newsprint market became a secular declining market in 2000, and has maintained a sharp downward trend from its peak in 1999. Europe did not immediately follow this trend. The incursion of electronic media was slower to take hold in Europe, sapping less of newspapers' advertising revenue and circulation base. The success of free weekly newspapers also propped up the European market for a number of years. From 2000 to 2006, Western European newsprint demand stayed more or less on a plateau of 10 million tonnes to 10.5 million tonnes.

Western Europe finally succumbed to the same forces that brought down newsprint demand in North America, but with a seven-year delay. Western European newsprint demand peaked in 2006, and has been on a secular downward path since that time. The performance of Western European newsprint demand in its first six years of secular decline (2007 to 2012) has an uncanny resemblance to the performance of North American demand in its first six years of decline (2000 to 2005).

- John Maine, RISI Vice President for World Graphic Papers, is the co-author of the Paper Trader, the North American Graphic Paper 5-Year Forecast and the North American Graphic Paper 15-Year Forecast.
He works out of RISI's Charlottesville, VA, office and can be reached at 434-978-2927 or jmaine@risi.com.

- Derek Mahlburg, RISI Graphic Paper Economist, is the co-author of the Paper Trader, the North American Graphic Paper 5-Year Forecast and the North American Graphic Paper 15-Year Forecast.
He works out of RISI's Charlottesville, VA, office and can be reached at 434-978-2927 or dmahlburg@risi.com.

This is an excerpt from a full story that is available in RISI's Pulp & Paper News Service.
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