http://www.risiinfo.comThe leading information provider for the global forest products industryen-usSat, 4 Jul 2009 01:56:34 -0400Copyright 2008 RISI, Inc.http://www.risiinfo.com/community/images/Risi_logo.jpghttp://www.risiinfo.com14428Visit www.risiinfo.comhttp://www.risiinfo.com/blogs/A-new-round-of-paper-investment-boom-in-China-2959.html?source=rssI have recently been talking to several suppliers and producers in the pulp and paper industry in Asia, and the good news is that it looks as if the Chinese pulp and paper market is on a fast expansion track again. There are new projects, big and small, signed or under discussion again in the recent months, after a quiet period since late last year. http://www.risiinfo.com/blogs/A-new-round-of-paper-investment-boom-in-China-2959.html?source=rssFri, 3 Jul 2009 00:00:00 -0400http://www.risiinfo.com/blogs/US-Industrial-lumber-a-microcosm-of-quick-change-markets.html?source=rssThe last few weeks have seen some sharp gains in wood products prices, from dimension lumber to panels. Among all wood products, perhaps Industrial lumber has most graphically demonstrated the snapping recoil of a market that was compressed virtually to its limit and released by sudden demand, as buyers became aware of the reality of supply shortages.http://www.risiinfo.com/blogs/US-Industrial-lumber-a-microcosm-of-quick-change-markets.html?source=rssThu, 2 Jul 2009 00:00:00 -0400http://www.risiinfo.com/blogs/Watching-transport-for-signs-of-recovery.html?source=rss Returning to the US a few weeks ago, after being in Shanghai attending the RISI Asian Pulp and Paper Outlook Conference, I was honestly surprised at the polar differences in economic outlook between East and West. From the minute I hit the ground in New York, the myriad of opinions thrown at me on the current state of the global economy - and their magnitude and intensity - was staggering and bewildering, and horribly depressing. Why is it that there is still no growing consensus on the economy? From green shoots to W's, from opinions that we've finally hit the bottom to those who claim this is just a lull in the storm. It's enough to make anyone go nuts. But instead of focusing on why there is such limited disagreement in Asia on their outlook - nearly all forecasts call for Asia to keep growing, albeit at a less than withering pace, and for the region to be the first to emerge from the global recession - I kept wondering why no one seems to have the pulse on where the rest of the world is headed. Case in point: The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) released their latest forecast last week, where they upgraded their previous gloomy forecast to something almost rosy, given the current climate; most notably for the US and Europe. However, instead of seeing this as promising news, the OECD was nearly vilified in some corners for ignoring the facts and putting on rose-colored glasses. Now, if we can't trust a group like the OECD for results, who do you call? Forget about the news reports It goes without saying that most of the major media outlets routinely focus on the wrong parts of the economy. In their defense, though, unemployment and inflation sells. Still, it's hard not to get wrapped up in the hype, especially when it fills the airwaves, and the Internet, and our mobile phones. Another case in point: Nearly everyone, except your friendly neighborhood day trader that is, will agree that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is one of the worst indicators of where the economy is going. Nevertheless, it's always there, tick, tick, ticking away, minute-by-minute. But as a quantitative number, it's erratic and often neurotic. And as for a qualitative assessment, its movement is anyone's guess - and it often is. There's a lot to be said for its historical perspective though, but as a beacon for future prospects, it's a complete failure. There is an argument to be made that some components of the stock market are worth watching closely. The S&P500 seems a much more stable marker of how things are going, and investor confidence can sometimes feel like a magic lantern. In favor of transports Maybe not surprisingly, there's also a strong argument to be made that the Dow Jones Transport Average (DJTA or the Dow Jones Transports) is a much more informative indicator than the equally singularly focused DJIA or NASDAQ. Consider who's a part of the DJTA, especially for forest products: railroads like CSX, Burlington Northern and Union Pacific; logistics providers such as JB Hunt, YRC Worldwide (formerly Yellow Roadway) and C. H. Robinson Worldwide; marine transporters Overseas Shipping Group and Alexander & Baldwin. In its favor, the DJTA is the oldest of the stock indices, first developed by Charles Dow in 1884. On the whole, it's far less sporadic than it's brother, the DJIA; and because it isn't splashed across the screen every 20 seconds, its movements and reactions can be said to be a more authentic measure of where investors are looking and moving. The drawbacks of the DJTA can also work in its favor. Because the economy has become more technology and service-based, the DJTA hasn't been subject to the devil of its own making, but relies heavily on the actual results and forecasts of the transport companies it represents; as well as the larger transport infrastructure of the economy. And if the insatiable allure of the DJIA is too much, especially for historical contexts, consider that the DJTA has followed nearly the same profile as the DJIA for decades, but without the wide swings and gyrations that only a trader could love. Getting moving again Granted, looking at the DJTA is an understandably high-level macro-view of the economy. Nothing can replace the expert price data and forecasts that only industry-specific analysts can bring to the table. But transport can have more foretelling than you might imagine. Final case in point: There is a general agreement that consumers must start consuming again for the economy to begin any long-term recovery. But many leading economic indicators, pointing to consumer spending, are misleading now, if simply because of high inventories and artificially low prices to eliminate stock. Even though consumers might be buying, until the manufacturers and producers start running at full-steam again, we're all going nowhere fast. This is when transports become significant. Many transporters and logistics providers are now reporting the same bottoming-out other analysts have mentioned. They are, so to speak, dusting off the wheels and preparing for a much-improved fall and winter. When inventories finally start running low, and orders pick up because demand improves, transport will start steaming again. And it's safe to say that those who work in, and invest in, transport are watching for that movement very carefully. When that starts to happen, my bet is that we are finally going to be out of the woods. http://www.risiinfo.com/blogs/Watching-transport-for-signs-of-recovery.html?source=rssWed, 1 Jul 2009 00:00:00 -0400http://www.risiinfo.com/blogs/NA-coated-paper-producers-work-to-displace-imports-to-avoid-capacity-closures-can-they-succeed.html?source=rssCHARLOTTESVILLE, June 25, 2009 (RISI) -- The demand/supply outlook for coated paper in North America looks very grim. Mills operated at only 72% of capacity through May, and while there will be some rebound in demand as the recession recedes, there is no way that a demand rebound will even come close to absorbing this excess capacity. Most of the high-cost inefficient mills have already been closed over the past few years, and producers have been taking roving downtime and delaying the hard decision to shut reasonably efficient and up-to-date facilities. http://www.risiinfo.com/blogs/NA-coated-paper-producers-work-to-displace-imports-to-avoid-capacity-closures-can-they-succeed.html?source=rssFri, 26 Jun 2009 00:00:00 -0400http://www.risiinfo.com/blogs/A-black-April-for-Mexican-economy.html?source=rssIt is no news that Mexico has been suffering the consequences of the financial recession of its major trade partner. the USA. But a bad combination of weak local demand, global downturn, flu outbreak and timing of Easter week in April turned the mentioned month into the "black sheep" so far for the country's economic performance. http://www.risiinfo.com/blogs/A-black-April-for-Mexican-economy.html?source=rssThu, 25 Jun 2009 00:00:00 -0400http://www.risiinfo.com/blogs/Green-shoots-Well-there-is-plenty-of-tree-planting-going-on-in-Europe.html?source=rssOnce the recession is out of the way, it's going to be business as usual for the paper industry as the issue of the environment comes once again on to center stage. By way of a foretaste, I recently attended a seminar in the UK hosted by representatives from the Programme for the Endorsement of Forest Certification (PEFC) READ ABOUT IT HERE who issued some interesting statistics about consumer habits and the growth of forest areas. http://www.risiinfo.com/blogs/Green-shoots-Well-there-is-plenty-of-tree-planting-going-on-in-Europe.html?source=rssTue, 23 Jun 2009 00:00:00 -0400http://www.risiinfo.com/blogs/Will-Made-in-China-become-a-major-threat-for-Asian-containerboard-exporting-nations-in-2009-2010.html?source=rssDuring the coffee breaks or in the conference room of the just-finished 10th RISI Asian Pulp & Paper Outlook Conference in Shanghai, China, I was frequently asked if China will become a major threat for the traditional Asian containerboard exporting countries, namely Indonesia, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. http://www.risiinfo.com/blogs/Will-Made-in-China-become-a-major-threat-for-Asian-containerboard-exporting-nations-in-2009-2010.html?source=rssMon, 22 Jun 2009 00:00:00 -0400http://www.risiinfo.com/blogs/Black-liquor-still-on-the-boil.html?source=rssThese are not the easiest of times for the beleaguered Canadian forest products industry. Suffering through the latest in a series of "Perfect Storms" that have hit the industry in recent years, the Canadian producers have had to face high energy (since alleviated somewhat), fiber and labor costs, shrinking markets and a rising (vis-à-vis the American dollar) loonie, which hurts the export-oriented Canadian producers.http://www.risiinfo.com/blogs/Black-liquor-still-on-the-boil.html?source=rssThu, 18 Jun 2009 00:00:00 -0400http://www.risiinfo.com/blogs/Looking-for-the-green-shoots.html?source=rssA couple of weeks ago I asked, in one of the regular online RISI Polls, "Can you see green shoots of recovery in the industry?" The answers made very interesting reading, with 38.9% of respondents answering ‘yes' and 23.9% saying ‘yes, but not in my firm'; just 37.2% of you could see no signs of recovery yet. http://www.risiinfo.com/blogs/Looking-for-the-green-shoots.html?source=rssWed, 17 Jun 2009 00:00:00 -0400http://www.risiinfo.com/blogs/Brutal-season-for-North-American-newsprint-producers.html?source=rssSpring is proving to be a brutal season for North American newsprint producers with both demand and prices plummeting at an unprecedented pace. Following a 25% plunge in the first quarter, the evaporation of total US newsprint consumption gained momentum in April, retreating 29% compared to year-ago levels. This, along with a reduction in consumer inventories has pulled North American demand (apparent consumption) down by a staggering 32% in the first four months of the year, translating into a loss of 900,000 tonnes compared to the same period last year. http://www.risiinfo.com/blogs/Brutal-season-for-North-American-newsprint-producers.html?source=rssTue, 16 Jun 2009 00:00:00 -0400http://www.risiinfo.com/blogs/Thereu2019s-writing-on-the-wall-all-right-but-what-does-it-say.html?source=rssAt a speech in Barcelona the other day, World Association of Newspapers (WAN) president Gavin O'Reilly had an upbeat message for newspaper executives from more than 50 countries who had come to exchange ideas on business strategies for the future.http://www.risiinfo.com/blogs/Thereu2019s-writing-on-the-wall-all-right-but-what-does-it-say.html?source=rssFri, 12 Jun 2009 00:00:00 -0400http://www.risiinfo.com/blogs/Governator-to-terminate-textbooks.html?source=rssArnold Schwarzenegger has got a new mission in sight: cut spending on education. His main target: paper. Or textbooks, to be more precise.http://www.risiinfo.com/blogs/Governator-to-terminate-textbooks.html?source=rssThu, 11 Jun 2009 00:00:00 -0400http://www.risiinfo.com/blogs/Recessionu2019s-winter-passing-for-Asian-pulp-and-paper-industry.html?source=rssAt the opening of RISI's Tenth Asian Pulp and Paper Outlook Conference, the pulp and paper industry in China has seen a noticeable uptick in the last few months. An increase in prices, declining stockpiles and resumed negotiations of delayed projects all mark some improved momentum. The question is: Will this momentum last? http://www.risiinfo.com/blogs/Recessionu2019s-winter-passing-for-Asian-pulp-and-paper-industry.html?source=rssTue, 9 Jun 2009 00:00:00 -0400http://www.risiinfo.com/blogs/Recent-developments-in-the-Latin-American-newsprint-business.html?source=rssImprovements in regional literacy and the availability of better education have been increasing newspaper readership recently in Latin America, despite the high penetration of the Internet and other digital media. Demand for newsprint increased 3.4% per year in 2006-2008, stimulated by strong economic activity in the advertising markets (mainly retail, real estate and automotive sectors) and rising newspaper circulation. However, the slowdown in the regional economy due to the global financial and credit crisis is predicted to lead demand to a 6% decline in 2009.http://www.risiinfo.com/blogs/Recent-developments-in-the-Latin-American-newsprint-business.html?source=rssThu, 4 Jun 2009 00:00:00 -0400