North American Bioenergy Forecast – Long-Term

The forecast provides both a current and forecast analysis of structural developments in the wood pellet, biomass power and cellulosic biofuel industries in the United States and Canada.


Bioenergy industry capacity is growing rapidly and intensifying competition for wood fiber. From the perspective of traditional end users of wood fiber, the growth of the bioenergy sector will change the playing field for wood biomass supply. For producers of pellets, power and biofuel, access to a competitively priced and secure fiber supply is critical for success.

The North American Bioenergy 5-Year Forecast includes projections for capacity development for biomass power, wood pellet and cellulosic biofuel industries. It analyzes various market dynamics to provide insight into how regional fiber supply and demand will be affected by increased bioenergy capacity.

Focus on Wood Pellets

Fastmarkets RISI’s North American Bioenergy 5-Year Forecast includes a detailed analysis of wood pellet prices, costs and profitability. This analysis includes regional average variable and fixed costs, transportation costs, pellet prices and industry profitability for both residential and industrial export pellet producers.

Analysis of Each Major Forest Product Sector’s Ability to Pay for Fiber

Organizations within the bioenergy industry must compete not only amongst themselves but also against traditional forest products industries for a limited wood biomass resource. Fastmarkets RISI’s North American Bioenergy 5-Year Forecast introduces the concept of fiber-paying capability (FPC) as a measure of industry competitiveness. The FPC analysis models costs and revenues of bioenergy and forest products industries to compare competitiveness in fiber markets.

The Forecast Includes:

  • 5-year outlook for North American pellet prices, cost structures and profitability
  • Analysis and projection of bioenergy industry capacity and production
  • 5-year outlook for wood biomass supply and demand
  • Analysis of competitive industries’ ability to continue to pay for fiber (i.e. pulp, MDF, particleboard, pellets, co-generation and biofuels.)
  • Wood fiber price forecasts

Table of Contents

Forecast Summary

  • Wood Pellets
  • Biomass Power
  • Liquid Biofuels

Winter Energy and Weather Outlook

  • Heating Degree Days
  • Natural Gas
  • Oil
  • Natural Gas and Oil Forecast
  • Wholesale Electricity

Industry Structure and Outlook

  • European Pellet Market Update
  • North American Wood Pellet Export Destinations
  • Asian Pellet Market Update
  • North American Pellet Market Outlook
  • North American Pellet Production Forecast
  • Global Pellet Demand Outlook
  • Industrial Pellet Market Supply and Demand
  • Domestic Pellet Market Demand Outlook
  • Biomass Power Generation: USA
  • Biomass Power Generation: Canada
  • Wood-Based Liquid Biofuels

Pellet Costs, Prices and Profitability

  • Industrial Pellet Export Market Costs
  • Industrial Pellet Export Market Prices
  • Industrial Pellet Export Market Profitability
  • Domestic Pellet Market Costs
  • Domestic Pellet Market Prices and Profitability
  • New England Residential Pellet Prices

Fiber Paying Capability

  • FPC of Pulpwood Users
  • FPC of Mill Residual Users

Woodfiber Supply and Demand

  • Supply and Demand: US South
  • Supply and Demand: US West
  • Supply and Demand: US Northeast
  • Supply and Demand: US North Central
  • Woodfiber Demand: Western Canada
  • Woodfiber Demand: Eastern Canada

Woodfiber Prices

  • Roundwood Prices
  • US Pellet Grade Wood Prices
  • Canadian Pellet Grade Wood Prices
  • Wood Biomass (Hogfuel) Prices
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