China Boxboard Study: The Nation’s Rise on the Global Stage 2014

A detailed analysis of China's boxboard demand, supply and trade dynamics from 2006 to 2018, including an exclusive study of the nation's expanding influence over global boxboard trade flow.

China Boxboard Study

Study Highlights:

  • China boxboard supply, demand, prices and trade dynamics from 2006-2018
  • Chinese exports and imports by sub-grade and sourcing/destination country
  • China’s export growth potential in terms of cost competitiveness and potential destination markets
  • Exclusive analysis of major players as well as market structure by major sub-grades, including FBB/ivoryboard, SBS, LPB & cupstock, coated duplex/recycled boxboard and more.
  • Boxboard demand composition and a bottom-up forecast focused on the top 15 end-use markets
  • Comparative cost analysis of European-made FBB, Chinese-made ivoryboard and North American-made folding cartonboard
  • Global trade implications of China’s ascent in the global boxboard industry

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China Boxboard Export Trend by Grades

China is already the largest boxboard consumer in Asia and accounts for more than 50% of total Asian boxboard consumption. Demand for boxboard is expected to grow at a rate of 4 to 5% between now and 2018, slowing from the 6%-7% growth recorded between 2009 and 2013. Nevertheless, virgin cartonboard demand will continue leading the overall growth.

China has also experienced rapid capacity growth with a peak growth rate of nearly 17% in 2013. This growth will continue at 7-9% through 2015. For virgin cartonboard grades, supply surplus will reach 1 million tonnes in 2014 and will likely surpass 2 million tonnes in 2015. The nation’s total virgin cartonboard capacity will also surpass North America’s total capacity in 2014. For recycled boxboard, 2013 already showed the largest market imbalance in eight years.

Overall, this aggressive capacity expansion and domestic market imbalance is leading to serious trade implications. Over the next five years, the nation is expected to have a significant impact on the global boxboard export market.

Fastmarkets RISI’s China Boxboard Study provides a detailed analysis of this impact, including information on:

  • Market landscape
  • Key market participants
  • Chinese export destinations
  • Export pricing
  • Consumption, trade and supply by major sub-grade
  • Boxboard demand and forecast by 15 End-use industries
  • Historical data back to 2006
  • A market outlook to 2018
  • Cross-regional cost comparisons and product characteristics

China Boxboard Demand and Supply

Invaluable strategic planning tool

  • Assess China’s expanding impact on global boxboard trade in our forecast period and Chinese producer competitiveness in both internal and external markets
  • Interpret global trade implications of China’s ascent in the boxboard supply
  • Examine strategies for business growth opportunities in China and other global export markets where Chinese exports have emerged and increased.
  • Gain insights into the latest development trends in the China boxboard market
  • Evaluate market structure, product mix, competitive landscape, major producers and regional markets
  • Understand the composition of boxboard demand by various end-use sectors, and how they will drive changes in future demand by sub-grade

China Boxboard End-Use Markets

Study Outline

1. Executive Summary

2. Chinese Economic Outlook

  • 2.1. Fastmarkets RISI’s Regional Definition of China

3. An Overview of the Chinese Boxboard Industry

  • 3.1. Grade Definitions
  • 3.2. Fastmarkets RISI’s Regional Definition of China
  • 3.3. Industry Demand, Supply and Trade Dynamics, 2006-2013
  • 3.3.1. Market Demand by Grade
  • 3.3.2. Production and Trade by Grade
  • 3.3.3. An Explanatory Note Regarding the Complexity of Boxboard Production and Trade Data
  • 3.3.4. Capacity Expansion, 2006-2011
  • 3.3.5. Capacity Expansion, 2012-2013
  • 3.3.6. Expansion Project Statistics and Distribution
  • 3.3.7. Overall Price Trend Analysis

4. Market Structure Characteristics (Firm-Level Analysis)

  • 4.1. Virgin Cartonboard Market in 2013-2014
  • 4.1.1. Domestic Prices for Commercial Packaging and Import FBB/SBS Prices
  • 4.2. Special Research and Analysis
  • 4.2.1. Case Study 1. Chinese Cigarette Board Market
  • 4.2.2. Case Study 2. Liquid Packaging Board Market
  • 4.2.3. Case Study 3. Cupstock (Food Grades) Market
  • 4.3. Recycled Boxboard Market in 2013-2014
  • 4.3.1. Domestic Coated Duplex Price Movements
  • 4.4. Profiles of Major Boxboard Producers and Investments in Boxboard Grades
  • 4.5. Basis Weight Analysis
  • 4.6. Shipping Shape and Roll/Sheet Portion
  • 4.7. Main Distribution Channels for Boxboard Grades

5. Boxboard Demand Composition, End-Use Analysis and Forecast

  • 5.1. Analysis of 15 Major End-Use Downstream Markets for Boxboard
  • 5.2. Fastmarkets RISI’s Research Methodology
  • 5.3. Overview of Chinese Boxboard Demand by End-Use Industry
  • 5.4. Fastmarkets RISI’s Forecasting Methodology
  • 5.5. End-Use Based Forecast for Boxboard Sub-Grades, 2014-2018

6. Industry Outlook and Analysis, A Hybrid Approach

  • 6.1. Chinese Boxboard Forecast Summary
  • 6.2. Total Boxboard Demand Forecast by Grade, 2014-2018
  • 6.3. Overall Production and Trade Forecast
  • 6.4. Capacity Expansion Monitoring and Analysis, 2014-2018
  • 6.5. Boxboard Capacity Forecast
  • 6.6. Regional and Market Briefs

7. Major Producers and Industry Competitive Landscapes

  • 7.1. Capacity and Machine Assets
  • 7.2. Fiber Furnish
  • 7.3. Coating Chemicals
  • 7.4. Main Sources of Market Pulp and Coating Chemicals
  • 7.5. Plies of Base Paper, Coating Layers and Coating Weights
  • 7.6. Cost Competitiveness of Chinese Virgin Cartonboard Producers
  • 7.7. Methodology of Estimating Cash Costs
  • 7.8. Cash Costs of Chinese Producers
  • 7.9. Scenario Analysis of New Machines Additions

8. Trade Implications of China’s Ascent and Risks

  • 8.1 Discussion of China’s Expanding Impact on the Global Boxboard Export Markets
  • 8.2 Chinese Boxboard Export Trends and Forecast Scenario, 2006-2018
  • 8.3 Firm-Level Behaviors, Export Pricing, and Exporting Destinations of Chinese Board
  • 8.4 Cross-Regional Market Comparisons
  • 8.5 Risks to the Forecast
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