The China Pulp Market in Transition: A Comprehensive Analysis and Outlook

A 10-Year forecast of pulp imports and production in China with an in-depth market update


China Pulp

The study includes:

  • 10-year forecast of pulp demand, production, consumption and imports
  • Capacity and production numbers by mill
  • Detailed profiles of key buyers, sellers and traders
  • Analysis of policy trends and new policy initiatives
  • BHK and non-wood pulp production costs in China
  • Comparison of Chinese pulp production cost economics to other key regions
  • Independent estimates of pulp capacity in China, including non-wood pulp capacity
  • Assessment of sub-regional demand and supply, including forest inventory modeling
  • Assessment of pulp line closures since the 2012 edition
  • Overview of non-wood pulp in China, including future market potential

This 2015 edition features new policies, updated cost analyses of non-wood pulp mills in China, as well as current capacities and closures since the last report. It also includes a downside risk scenario that analyzes how a worse-than-expected path might impact the paper industry.

Though China’s paper industry is in transition, it remains the fastest growing and most influential market in the global pulp and paper industry. The first edition of this study, released in 2012, quickly became a “must read” for those who follow the Chinese market.

For this new edition, RISI reassembled a cross-functional team of experts and analysts to assess the new outlook for the China pulp market. The study provides the most detailed and in-depth analysis of the market available today. It is a critical update on how, and to what extent, the market has developed in the past three years. It explores:

  • Changes to the competitive landscape and how those changes will shape the future of the industry
  • Detailed information on market leaders and key participants, including their capacities and costs
  • Analysis of the overall structure of the Chinese market
  • An in-depth look at end-use markets and furnish share trends that will drive future demand
  • Insight into how future closures will impact Chinese import demand for pulp

Understand the Chinese Market from the Ground Up

RISI’s substantial on-the-ground presence in Beijing and Shanghai gives analysts and economists granular insight into industry producers, buyers, traders and resource availability. For example, our independent estimates of pulp capacity in China differ in some cases significantly from official Chinese data, and all of our information is included in the study. RISI’s localized team also provides unique insight into new government policies that will affect market developments.

Key Questions Answered in this Study

  • How much pulp will China import in the future?
  • Will it continue to be the main driver of rising world pulp demand?
  • What are the risks surrounding a more serious slowdown in the China market?
  • Who is at risk and who are the players that are currently in the market?

Who will benefit from this study?

Pulp Suppliers Worldwide

  • Understand pulp capacity expansion in China, with fresh estimates of production costs, including for nonwood pulp.
  • Access forecasts on China’s future pulp imports with information on grades and end-uses.
  • Understand what will drive closures going forward, and know the extent that these affect import demand for pulp.

Suppliers of Pulping Chemicals and Machinery

  • Analyze potential changes in pulp production and expansion plans and trends
  • Know how much capacity may close in the medium-term future

Fiber Buyers and Nonintegrated Producers

  • Understand how Chinese pulp supply and demand are evolving
  • Identify key drivers of growth and volatility in the world pulp market

Table of Contents

Part I: China’s Macroeconomic Outlook – A New Reality

  • Economic and Demographic Development Through 2025

Part II: A Detailed Overview of China’s Paper Industry

  • Trends in China’s Paper Consumption
  • China’s Paper Industry
    • How Big is China’s Paper Industry – Revisited
    • Age/Size/Concentration Summaries of Woodfree P&W Papers
    • Policy Developments: Where is the Government Steering the Industry?
    • Capacity Closures: Recent History and Trends
    • Trade Trends

Part III: An Overview of China’s Pulp Industry

  • Fiber Production and Consumption
    • Updated Furnish Shares and End Use Information
    • New Insights on Recovered Paper Collection and Consumption Trends
    • Market Pulp Continuing to Move to Integrated Pulp
    • Age/Size/Concentration Summaries for Key Grades
    • Capacity Closures: Updated History and Trends
    • Wood Supply and Cost
    • Non-wood Pulp Capacity and Consumption
    • Other Virgin Fiber Availability and Cost
    • Dissolving Pulp
  • Detailed Profiles of Pulp Producers in China
  • The China Pulp Market
    • Overview
    • BHKP, BSKP, Mechanical
    • Size of market
    • Key Consumers and End Uses
    • Key Suppliers
      • Domestic
      • Foreign
    • Trade Trends
    • Profiles of Key Pulp Traders
  • Comparing Pulp Production Costs in China to Other Key Regions

Part IV: The Outlook for Pulp Demand and Production in China Through 2025

  • Paper Demand and Production Through 2025
  • Pulp Consumption, Production, and Imports Through 2025
  • The Outlook for Pulp Consumption and Production
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