Paper Packaging Monitor

Tracking and forecasting demand and prices for North American Paperboard and Kraft Paper Markets


The Paper Packaging Monitor provides a current and near-term outlook for the North American Paper Packaging market. It looks at how factors such as industrial production and corrugated box shipments have and will impact demand across containerboard, kraft papers and boxboard grades.

Each issue includes demand, production, shipments, inventories, capacity, operating rates and trade. The Monitor contains RISI’s proprietary monthly benchmark prices for the current year, and a price forecast for the upcoming year by quarter. The grades covered are outlined below.


Grades Covered

A monthly price summary and quarterly price forecast are included in the Monitor for the following grades:

Containerboard

  • Unbleached Kraftliner
  • Semichemical Medium
  • White Top Liner
  • Kraftliner
  • Recycled Liner
  • Recycled Medium

Kraft Paper

  • Unbleached Grocer’s Bag
  • Unbleached Multiwall Bag
  • Unbleached Extensible Sack

Boxboard

  • Clay-Coated Bleached Folding
  • Clay-Coated Recycled Folding
  • Uncoated Recycled Folding
  • Clay-Coated Unbleached Folding Cartonboard
  • Clay-Coated Unbleached Beverage Carrier

List of Tables

  • Table 1 – Paper Packaging Monthly Production Summary
  • Table 2 – Paper Packaging Monthly Price Summary
  • Table 3 – Paper Packaging Price Forecast
  • Table 4 – Corrugated Box and Containerboard Forecast
  • Table 5 – Boxboard Forecast
  • Table 6 – Kraft & Recycled Packaging Paper Forecast
  • Table 7 – U.S. Unbleached Kraftliner Exports by Destination
  • Table 8 – U.S. Paper Packaging Imports

Publication frequency:

12 times a year


Consumables Cost Index

Input cost inflation is a key factor influencing paper price fluctuations, yet until now, there has been no single, independent source that reported these cost data.

RISI has developed the Consumables Cost Index (CCI) to track the effects of key consumables costs on paper prices over time. The CCI helps buyers have a clearer view of how the price is set. It tracks the dollar per ton changes in costs for the most volatile inputs used to make and deliver paper: fiber, energy, and transportation. The remaining cost components (chemicals, labor, operating materials and fixed costs) are much more stable, and trend upward over time.

For example, the 42 lb Kraftliner, US South CCI illustrates how changes in the prices of fiber, energy and transportation affect mill costs on a dollar per short-ton basis. Each component of the index is generated by multiplying calculated consumption rates for the consumable material times regional unit costs for the same material, to reach the cost per tonne. The final CCI is calculated by summing the three consumable costs together.

CCI component (cost per tonne) = Regional Unit Costs x Calculated Consumption Rates
CCI (cost per tonne) = Fiber + Energy + Transportation Components

Consumption rates are calculated based on a weighted average of relevant mill consumption rates from RISI Cost Benchmarking.

The first index published is for Southern Kraftliner; with the CCI for other grades rolled out over time.

The CCI includes:

A chart tracking the CCI for the past eight quarters.

  • This chart will include values for the total index (all combined cost factors), as well as each of the three sub-components (fiber, energy, and transportation.) It shows the overall percentage index change from the previous quarter.

An online data table that details the consumption factors, input prices and calculated costs for each index subcomponent.

  • The table includes ancillary quarterly data for anyone who would like to track the CCI for a period greater than is being shown in the Paper Packaging Monitor. The detailed table also includes a section that puts the CCI components into perspective with the other less volatile cost components and the open market price for the product.

A detailed methodology describing the data and method used to generate the CCI.

  • This includes a description of how each of the consumption factors was generated; an explanation of how the input costs were calculated; and a complete list of the mills that were included when the consumption factors were set. An excel table showing a more detailed breakdown of the index is available below:
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