North American Bioenergy Forecast – long-term

The forecast provides both a current and forecast analysis of structural developments in the wood pellet, biomass power and cellulosic biofuel industries in the United States and Canada.

Bioenergy industry capacity is growing rapidly and intensifying competition for wood fiber. From the perspective of traditional end users of wood fiber, the growth of the bioenergy sector will change the playing field for wood biomass supply. For producers of pellets, power and biofuel, access to a competitively priced and secure fiber supply is critical for success.

The North American Bioenergy 5-Year Forecast includes projections for capacity development for biomass power, wood pellet and cellulosic biofuel industries. It analyzes various market dynamics to provide insight into how regional fiber supply and demand will be affected by increased bioenergy capacity.

Wood Fiber Consumption by Bioenergy Market

Focus on Wood Pellets

RISI’s North American Bioenergy 5-Year Forecast includes a detailed analysis of wood pellet prices, costs and profitability. This analysis includes regional average variable and fixed costs, transportation costs, pellet prices and industry profitability for both residential and industrial export pellet producers.

Analysis of each major forest product sector’s ability to pay for fiber

Organizations within the bioenergy industry must compete not only amongst themselves but also against traditional forest products industries for a limited wood biomass resource. RISI’s North American Bioenergy 5-Year Forecast introduces the concept of fiber-paying capability (FPC) as a measure of industry competitiveness. The FPC analysis models costs and revenues of bioenergy and forest products industries to compare competitiveness in fiber markets.

Fiber Paying Capability (FPC) by Industry

The forecast includes:

  • 5-year outlook for North American pellet prices, cost structures and profitability
  • Analysis and projection of bioenergy industry capacity and production
  • 5-year outlook for wood biomass supply and demand
  • Analysis of competitive industries’ ability to continue to pay for fiber (i.e. pulp, MDF, particleboard, pellets, co-generation and biofuels.)
  • Wood fiber price forecasts

Table of Contents

Forecast Changes and Updates

  • Wood Pellet Export Market Developments
  • North American Wood Pellet Exports

Industry Structure and Outlook

  • Wood Pellet Market Outlook
  • 2014 US South Industrial Pellet Developments
  • North American Wood Pellet Production Forecast
  • 2014 North American Pellet Mill Map
  • 2014 US South Pellet Export Map
  • Global Pellet Demand Outlook
  • Industrial Pellet Supply and Demand
  • Biomass Power Generation: USA
  • Biomass Power Generation: Canada
  • Wood Based Liquid Biofuels

Pellet Costs Prices and Profitability

  • Industrial Pellet Export Market Prices and Profitability
  • Industrial Pellet Export Market Cost
  • Domestic Pellet Market Prices and Profitability
  • Domestic Pellet Market Costs

Fiber Paying Capability

  • FPC of Bioenergy Producers
  • FPC of Forest Product Producers
  • FPC of Roundwood Users
  • FPC of Residual Users

Woodfiber Supply and Demand

  • Supply and Demand: US South
  • Supply and Demand: US West
  • Supply and Demand: US Northeast
  • Supply and Demand: US North Central
  • Woodfiber Demand: Western Canada
  • Woodfiber Demand: Eastern Canada

Woodfiber Prices

  • Roundwood Prices
  • US Pellet Grade Wood Prices
  • Canadian Pellet Grade Wood Prices
  • Wood Biomass (Hogfuel) Prices
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