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European Biomass Review

New comprehensive analysis and forecast of the European Bioenergy sector

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Renewable energy policy in Europe will see biomass demand grow by almost 50% between 2010 and 2020 with increased use of biomass not only in the energy sector but also in industrial and residential sectors.

Biomass is currently the largest source of renewable energy in Europe and is a relatively attractive option. However, unless new sources of biomass are developed beyond current levels, Europe will face an acute shortage of biomass.

What is the potential to increase regional supply for biomass from forest and other sources and what actions are being taken to release the potential? The key to the future development of European biomass markets resides in the region's supply potential; and how well it can mobilize new sources of supply, such as forest, agricultural residues and energy crops.

European Biomass Review provides three scenarios for the mobilization of new sources based on demand forecasts -by segment until 2020-, supply potential and costs.

Possibly the most powerful tool in the study, is the forecast cost-curve analysis for each region across all feedstocks. For each of the three supply scenarios: full supply mobilization, partial mobilization and no mobilization of new sources, this provides a snapshot of each regional market in 2020. These fifteen cost curves illustrate how demand can meet supply and the required import and price levels - as pictured below for the UK & Ireland.

Nb. For illustrative purposes; figures have been removed in the chart below.

The study covers lignocellulosic biomass (wood, energy crops, and agricultural residues) for the EU27 countries plus Norway and Switzerland, with breakdowns by five regions (North, West, East, & South Europe, UK and Ireland).


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Topics covered

  • The "EU Energy 2020" strategy, including targets and action plans
  • Fundamental drivers of biomass demand in Europe by end-use and region until 2020
  • Supply potential directly and indirectly from the forest and non-forest sources
  • Biomass availability and cost in Europe
  • Announced biomass heat and power installations in the EU
  • Economic incentives affecting biomass energy investments and installation types in key countries
  • The need for imported biomass - including opportunities for biomass suppliers in other world regions
  • European biomass and wood price scenarios that are likely to develop given demand and costs of supply
  • Potential implications for the traditional forest industries and energy sectors

Who can benefit from this study?

European Biomass Review 2011 provides three scenarios for the development of European lignocellulosic biomass markets until 2020, to aid strategic decision-makers:

  • European suppliers of biomass, including forest owners, players in the agricultural sector, and wood product industries
  • Global exporters of biomass, especially wood pellet producers in North America, Russia and South America
  • Biomass consumers in Europe, including pulp, paper and panel producers and utilities in the energy sector
  • Service providers to the biomass industry, including engineering, consulting and financial services

How can European Biomass Review help you?

As an independent analysis and forecast, European Biomass Review considers renewable energy targets, National Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAPs), announced investments, carbon costs and the economics of biomass versus other renewable energy sources (RES) to provide three scenarios for the development of European lignocellulosic biomass markets until 2020.

Biomass Producers

  • Strategically Plan and budget -inform planning and budgeting decisions with a long-term market outlook and three forecast supply scenarios.
  • Inform pricing decisions - with long-term market price forecasts to benchmark against.
  • .
  • Minimize threats -be prepared for how competition will develop until 2020.
  • Maintain Competitive Advantage -analyze what and where are the opportunities for growth in Europe and how cost-efficient supply chains could be developed.

Biomass Consumers

  • Strategically Plan and budget - prepare for changes in supply with long-term scenarios for full, partial and no supply mobilization.
  • Inform purchasing decisions - with long-term cost forecasts.

Suppliers to the Biomass Industry

  • Strategically Plan - prepare for demand changes with long-term forecasts.
  • Maintain Competitive Advantage - understand the economics of renewable energy sources and how biomass from foresty, agriculture & fisheries and waste will develop as a competitive energy source.
  • Maximize opportunities -identify future physical infrastructure needs.

Financial Services Providers & Equity lnvestors

  • Understand-the end-use sectors and how the political environment will affect the market outlook for biomass until 2020.
  • Keep informed -understand the economics of renewable energy sources and how biomass from foresty, agriculture & fisheries and waste will develop as a competitive energy source.
  • Maximize opportunities - identify needs for biomass futures and hedging instruments.
  • Risk Assessment - assess debtor opportunity and risk with the long-term market forecast.

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Study Outline

Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
POLICY ENVIRONMENT

  • The EU "Energy 2020" strategy
  • The EU Emissions Trading Scheme
  • Renewable energy targets
  • National renewable energy action plans
DEMAND OUTLOOK
  • Energy sector
  • Residential sector
  • Industrial sector
  • Other sectors, including transportation fuels
SUPPLY POTENTIAL
  • Current supply
  • Supply potential and expected costs
  • Direct from forest
    • Roundwood
    • Forest residues
  • Indirect from forest
    • Industrial residues
    • Recycled wood
  • Non-forest sources
    • Non-forest wood
    • Energy crops
    • Agriculture residues
  • Forest industry fiber demand
  • Converted biomass products
  • Imports

MARKET OUTLOOK AND IMPLICATIONS
  • Supply mobilization scenarios
  • Regional demand-supply balances
  • Implications and expected developments
APPENDICES
  • National Renewable Energy Action Plans
  • Historical and forecast demand by segment and region
  • Database of announced energy sector biomass capacity investment

Study Team

Glen O'kelly Glen O'Kelly, Consultant, Bioenergy Services, RISI

Glen is an industry analyst and consultant, with more than 10 years experience in the forest products and bioenergy sectors in Europe and Australasia. With a background in forest management and economics and experience in management consulting, his expertise includes procurement, sustainability, due diligence and corporate strategy. Based in Stockholm, Sweden, Mr. O&Kelly has served diverse clients, including many leading European pulp and paper manufacturers, energy utilities, equipment manufacturers, and governmental departments. He has also been closely involved with several public and private studies on the outlook for European biomass and the impact on wood markets. Glen holds a Master of Science degree in Forest Economics from the New Zealand School of Forestry at Canterbury University, and Bachelor degrees in Forestry Science and Commerce from the same university.



Anne Anne Rahikainen, Director, Bioenergy Services, RISI

Anne has 14 years of management consulting experience in the forests products industry and wood biomass consuming bioenergy sectors with consulting experience both in North America and Western Europe. Her areas of expertise are market and policy research, biomass fuel supply analysis and due diligence studies, locating manufacturing sites and development of company strategy and business plans. Ms. Rahikainen has lead numerous studies in the bioenergy sector, assisting major utilities, biofuels producers, pellet manufacturers, trading companies, and investors make optimal investment decisions. Ms. Rahikainen has a MSc in Forest Management from the University of Helsinki, an MSc in Forest Products Marketing from the University of Washington, and an Executive MBA from Cornell University.



Biomass Expertise

RISI's team of economists and editors have over 25 years of experience serving wood fiber consuming industries in North America and internationally with market analysis, economic forecasts and pricing information. RISI's Bioenergy services and publications include the Wood Biomass Market Report, a monthly market and pricing publication, as well as several special market analysis studies. In addition, RISI's bioenergy team, has compiled the most thorough database of North American and European wood biomass projects, and has been contracted to perform special consulting projects spanning the entire supply chain, for numerous global industry and government agencies.

Price

Corporate License*: EUR 7,500

Single Print Copy: EUR 5,900

*Corporate License includes: A print copy of the Report + online access to: PDF, data in a spreadsheet, summary slides, webinar presentation on study findings + Internal Distribution Rights

Ordering Information

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