Virgil K. Horton Jr,
is President of The Horton Group, Inc., a management consulting firm that serves the paper, printing, and publishing industries. He serves as the Print Media Group Consultant for the Graphic Communications Association.

We will be ready!

Whatever you choose to call it—the Millennium Virus, the Y2K Problem, Bug of the Century—the print media industry will be ready come the turn of the Century on December 31st, 1999. The total supply chain has been hard at work and spent hundreds of millions of dollars to prepare for this business event.

Keep in mind that this is the first time in history that every business in every country, in every corner of the globe will face the same potential problem at the same time. It is this very fact that makes the issue loom so large in this period of business globalization of sales and supply.

Why the concern? This is not just an easily fixed computer problem, but rather a business problem that could affect every system in a company. This means everything including business relationships and operations. It demands attention from the top down.

By this time, most of the industry has inven-toried, investigated compliance, assessed systems, and is now finalizing their contingency plans. In the midst of this work, they have found the problem, while tedious, is not as insurmountable as originally led to believe.

Who to believe? At the beginning of this trek, there were a lot of doomsayers indicating this would be the Armageddon of business and of everyday life as we know it today. The issue became an opportunity for a number of people to panic others into spending money on work and products that are not needed.

I have had the opportunity to facilitate the Graphics Communications Association’s “Graphics Century Project.” This project’s members are made up of the print media industry’s supply chain including paper, printers, publishers, and other industry suppliers.The approach has been a positive, proactive one that centers around a coordinated exchange of information on best practices, lessons learned, and common experiences and challenges in dealing with the year 2000 problem in all aspects of print media systems.

Through a series of informational meetings, development of a standardized industry Y2K readiness survey, development of a supply chain model, and targeted workshops, the many participants have raised the comfort level of the total supply chain. This open communication has fostered the firm belief that this industry will indeed be ready for the turning of the century.

Seeing the effects of this open communication brings another observation to mind. What a great public relations and customer relations’ opportunity companies have if they will work with and communicate with their suppliers and customers openly. In some cases a company’s legal staff is hampering this openness. I would encourage senior management to guide the legal departments so this opportunity is not a lost one to competitors.

Why my bullish attitude on the industry’s readiness? In addition to our industry doing a good job, major sectors of the supply chain such as power, energy, and telecommunications, have made significant strides in communicating with the supply chain.

Taking a look at the power industry, much of the industry is analog, electromechanical, or manual. Ninety eight percent of the industry is participating in the testing and reporting programs. As pointed out by Con Edison, this is just one more chapter in the book of contingency plans. The industry is used to handling hurricanes, tornadoes, ice storms, and fires, to name a few.

The natural gas industry has a similar report and continues to work with partners such as telecom/electrical on joint testing and contingency plans.

The telecommunications industry reached the high 90% compliant level of network operations support systems by April of this year. By the end of the second quarter, the goal was close to 100%. One area of concern will be the perceptions of risks in the international network. With the exception of North America and Western Europe, the perceived level of risk for other regions ranges from medium to high for Y2K failures.

The transportation industry has not been as forthcoming with openness in their communications as the other sectors of the supply chain. The industry wants to rely on the Internet and reports to the Federal government without appearances before groups of their customers. The exception is the U.S. Postal Service with a good outreach program and accomplishment toward their goal.

The bottom line is be prepared and practice normal business behavior. We will be able to order paper, manufacture paper, deliver paper, print the material, ship the printed product, and deliver to the consumer. Will all of this be done without a blip? Of course not—“stuff happens.”