From the (e)mailbox
It didn’t take long for February’s From The Editors column (P&P, February 1999, p. 9) on Y2K problems and the paper industry to strike a chord with readers. The column solicited comments as well as some examples of what mills and paper companies are doing to solve process and business related problems expected to occur when the digit counters go from ’99 to ’00. Here is a sampling of responses.
Allen Courington of MacMillan Bloedel Packaging Inc., sent this email: “An interesting article, typical of the many that have appeared in trade magazines in the last year or so. The only mills that may experience downtime as a result of Y2K are the mills that have their operating processes running on software controls without hardwired or manual control backup.
“I say ‘only,’ and in actuality this may be a majority of the mills out there. The point is that the operations that are still running on stand-alone electronic or pneumatic controllers and hard-wired start/stop pushbuttons will not miss a beat, because, as your article states, in an average-sized modern pulp and paper complex, PLCs and DCSs are controlling the process, with individual software driven sensors such as flows, levels consistencies, etc., as inputs.
“The software-driven mills we have talked to have their own in-house programs going to catch and eliminate as many of the Y2K bugs as possible.”
A PROGRAMMER SPEAKS. An even more intriguing email response came from Bob Gilbert, who is information systems manager and Year 2000 project manager for Crestbrook Forest Industries in British Columbia. Mr. Gilbert, who has a good perspective on the situation due to his previous occupation during the 1970s, was quick to point out the errors that came from this shortsighted editor’s keyboard.
“I openly admit that I was ‘part of the problem!’ As a programmer in the 1970s, I routinely used two digit years in dates, but I take great exception to your comments about ‘shortsighted programmers.’
“1. When I was programming in the 1990s and dealing with multi-million record databases each containing 10 or more dates, we were TOLD to use two digit dates. The reason was simple, and purely related to the economics of saving space on disk drives which cost in the six figures for disk drives with less capacity than the one on my home PC.
“2. Realistically, how many of us REALLY think about the impact of their routine day-to-day work decisions in a 30-year context? Please also keep in mind that the average age of the IS people during that time was “20-something.” How many people in that age range even think past their 30th birthday, let alone 30 years hence? Did you?
“3. Not all of the programming languages even supported four digit years.
“4. The average age of a business application is about five years, with financial systems such as payroll lasting about twice as long on average. There was simply no reason to think beyond that.
“Obviously none of this excuses programmers developing software in the 1990s, and especially the late 1990s.
“In the future, I would appreciate a little more balance with such cavalier remarks as ‘shortsighted programmers.’ I was there. I know the story and why we did what we did. We were neither shortsighted nor idiots (as we have been called). Also, why is it always ‘the programmers’ who are to blame? Where were the managers—the ones paid ‘the big bucks’ to think strategically and with foresight?
“Finally, you are ALSO part of the problem with your ‘cute’ but irresponsible comments such as ‘keep stocking your bunker.’ That just fuels the hysteria, which in my opinion is the problem we should really be concerned about!”
NEED FOR LEVELHEADEDNESS. Mr. Gilbert is, of course, exactly right in his comments, and in follow-up correspondence with him, we both agreed that the most critical concern for all of us in the industry and in society is to quell the hysteria that seems to be building. As he puts it, there will certainly be some “bumps and problems, even perhaps isolated ‘meltdowns,’ but there will not be the widespread technology failures that some are predicting.”
Evidence of this hysteria is springing up everywhere, such as Y2K Preparedness/Survivalist conferences and religious leaders predicting Armageddon-like consequences. While my “bunker” comment was an attempt at humor, there are some who do have their bunkers ready for December 31.
We continue to welcome comments, suggestions for industry-related articles on solving Y2K problems, and examples of those fixes. Please email your comments to kferguson@mfi.com or fax them to (770) 933-0666.
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